EXCHANGE RATE AND INCOME EFFECT ON TURKEY-GERMANY FOREIGN TRADE: APPROACH OF ARDL BOUNDS TEST
TÜRKİYE-ALMANYA DIŞ TİCARETİNDE DÖVİZ KURU VE GELİR ETKİSİ: ARDL SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI

Author : Mehmet Barış ASLAN
Number of pages : 389-406

Abstract

One of the most significant economic problems of a country, foreign trade deficits take place in primary challenges to be resolved for economy administrations. Taking stand from this point of view, this study aims to investigate the foreign trade between Germany and Turkey, two significant partners in foreign trade, in terms of exchange rate and income elasticity and to shed light on empirical literature on foreign trade deficits. In this scope, ARDL Econometrics analysis method was applied and quarter data of 1998Q1-2014Q4 period were used. According to the obtained results, the effect of exchange rate on foreign trade between two countries, in other words, Marshall-Lerner condition was found invalid. On the other hand, it was anticipated that income policies would lead to more effective results rather than exchange rate policies towards reducing the foreign trade deficits since the income effect was found strong in the given bilateral trade.

Keywords

Foreign Trade, Exchange Rate, ARDL, Marshall-Lerner

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