Author :
DOI : 10.29228/kesit.57336
Year-Number: 2022-30
Yayımlanma Tarihi: 2022-03-11 23:48:16.0
Language : İngilizce
Konu : Uluslararası İktisat
Abstract
Türkiye-Avrupa Birliği (AB) ilişkileri 12 Eylül 1963 tarihinde imzalanan Ankara anlaşması ile başlamış, 1 Ocak 1996 yılında yürürlüğe giren gümrük birliği anlaşması ile günümüze kadar gelmiştir. Türkiye, şu anda AB ile müzakere aşamasında bulunan bir aday ülkedir. Gümrük birliği anlaşmasının yürürlüğe girmesinden sonra, Türkiye AB ticareti önemli bir ivme kazanmıştır. Ne var ki, COVID 19 Pandemi sürecinde uluslararası ticaret olumsuz etkilenmiştir. Bu makalenin amacı, Türkiye’nin dış ticaretinde en az %50’lik paya sahip olan AB ticaretinin bu süreçten etkilenip etkilenmediğini ortaya koymaktır. Ocak 2020-Haziran 2021 dönemine ait aylık verileri kullanarak yaptığımız analizler, COVID vaka sayılarının Türkiye-AB ticareti üzerinde olumsuz bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Buna karşılık, GSYİH, nüfus ve döviz kurlarının dış ticaret üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu gözlenmiştir.
Keywords
Abstract
Turkey-European Union (EU) relations started with the Ankara Agreement signed on 12 September 1963 and have come to the present with the customs union agreement that entered into force on 1 January 1996. Turkey is currently a candidate country in the negotiation phase with the EU. After the customs union agreement came into force, Turkey-EU trade gained a significant momentum. However, international trade has been adversely affected during the COVID 19 Pandemic. The aim of this article is to reveal whether the EU trade, which has a share of at least 50% in Turkey's foreign trade, is affected by this process. Our analysis using monthly data for the period January 2020-June 2021 showed that the ratio of deaths to total new cases of COVID-19 has a negative impact on Turkey-EU trade. On the other hand, it has been observed that GDP, population, and exchange rates have a positive effect on foreign trade.
Keywords
- In December of 2019 the World Health Organization’s regional office in Beijing informed by the Chinese authorities that they have noticed a pneumonia of unknown The Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on Trade between Turkey and the ... 24 cause detected in the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, and until 04th January 2020 WHO reported many cases but until that date it was with no deaths (WHO, 2020).Decision-makers at the bigenning believed that this could be contained and controlled within the region and disruption of world trade, which affected the supply and the demand of the global economy, because many governments ordered for temporary closure of non-essential manufacturing facilities, while some corporations took the same decision because of the reduction in the supply of labour or have simply decreased production due to disruptions in their supply chains, the pandemic caused worst economic crisis in a century, pushing more than 48 million people to poverty worldwide (Gruszczynski, 2020), but after that the situation got worse in 11th of March WHO characterized COVID-19 as a pandemic, but the virus had already spread in many countries around the world so by April 2020 about 80% of the countries around the world had imposed strong social distancing measures to control the spread of the disease (Loayza, 2020), these measures have had an impact on all economies, and through trade and tourism on partner economies (Maliszewska et al., 2020).
- Economists around the world responded to this pandemic quickly and they in- vestigated the economic impacts of COVID-19, Especially the impact on the international trade. In a study for the impacts of the pandemic on the international trade and using data from 186 countries for the first quarter of 2020, it was found that the impact in exporting countries, but not in the importing countries, has a significantly negative effect on trade and this negative effect was seen from developing countries but not from developed countries, on the other hand the impact in an exporter’s neighbouring countries has a positive effect on its exports, and importers’ COVID-19 burden has positive effects on trade in the agricultural industry, whereas exporters COVID-19 burden has negative effects, particularly in the textile, footwear, and plastic industries (Hayakawa, et al 2020).The same authors empirically investigated the role of E-commerce (EC) on COVID-19 trade impacts. During the months of January to August in 2019 and 2020, they calculated gravity equations for bilateral commerce between 34 reporting countries and their 145 partner countries. The researchers discovered that an increase in the number of confirmed cases or deaths in both importing and exporting countries reduces international trade.
- Using data for the period of March-July 2020 (Megits et al., 2020) found that the volume of mutual trade between China and some countries of Eastern Europe decreased by 1.62% to 6.14%, and (Mou, 2020) study found that Chinese imports and exports with Korea, Japan, and the USA in the first quarter of 2020 are negative, especially with USA, the import rate was -23.54% and export growth rate -36.47% on March2020, In (Kejzar et al., 2020) study they highlighted the role of supply chain connections for the transmission of Covid-19 induced shocks using the monthly trade data of the EU M. ALSANUSİ-H. ATİK-M. M. KABİR 25 members and using the framework of the gravity model and found a significantly negative trade effects associated with Covid-19 cases per capita in both origin and destination country, they also find that the export decreases twice as much in response to an increase in Covid-19 cases in the destination country than in the origin country, and it becomes more sensitive to the Covid-19 situation in the origin country over time, telling that import demand shocks have a more immediate effect than export supply ones.
- In another study (Müller et al., 2021) examined priorities of EU trade strategy in the face of the COVID-19 epidemic. The authors analysed how the EU's trade policy has changed in the first eight months February to September 2020, since the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Furthermore, the authors examine the extent to which unique protectionist measures have infiltrated the EU's trade policy implementation. The paper seeks to be one of the first of its type to examine the changes in EU trade policy formation brought forth by COVID-19. The report indicates that, throughout the first eight months of the epidemic, EU trade policy was open and protectionist measures were rarely used. However, the EU will face rising protectionist pressures from both the internal and external settings in the future.
- On the other hand (Mirza et al., 2020) investigated the impact of COVID-19 on the solvency profile of the firms in the EU member states, and they found that the solvency profile of all firms deteriorates, and the manufacturing, mining, and retail sector are most vulnerable to a decline in market capitalization and a reduction in sales revenues and their suggestion was that for a moderate deterioration in economic conditions, a tax deferral is sufficient but in the event of exacerbating business shocks, there should be hybrid support through debt and equity to avoid a meltdown.
- By estimating the impact of COVID-19-induced uncertainty shock on the world output (Caggiano et al., 2020) predict a peak response of world industrial production of about 1.6%, and a cumulative output loss over one year of about 14%.
- In another study (Khorana et al., 2021) examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global and intra-Commonwealth trade flows using the gravity model of international commerce. They estimated the impact of the pandemic on Commonwealth nations commerce by combining bilateral monthly export statistics at the HS6 level with the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities, as well as the severity of the virus's containment efforts. The analysis reveals that COVID-19 has had an influence on Commonwealth trade flows in both exporting and importing nations, and that the magnitude of the effect varies depending on the development level of trading partners. In addition, the study offers a series of policy choices and suggestions aimed at achieving long-term recovery and resilience in Commonwealth economies such as Commonwealth nations may see the current scenario as a great chance to deploy new technology to promote recovery efforts, given their rising engagement in global commerce. However, they found that EC development in importing countries contributes to miti- gating this negative effect of COVID-19 on trade while that in exporting countries does not.
- In another work (Lin, 2020) investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global food supply and markets. They used a unique firm-level survey data to assess the impact of COVID-19 on agricultural export enterprises in China. Their findings show that, while agricultural businesses exports decreased on average, exports of some agricultural products, particularly grain and oil, remained stable or even increased, implying the critical demand for staple food during the pandemic, and that COVID-19 had a greater impact on smaller businesses than on larger businesses.
- In the most studies we reviewed we found that it used the data for 2020 only, and we didn’t find a study estimating the impact of covid-19 on the trade between EU and Turkey, So our contribution in this study will be that we will use data for a longer period as It’s already has been more than a year and a half since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and we will see the impact of the pandemic on trade between the European Union and Turkey, especially that there is a customs union agreement between EU and Turkey and some EU countries have borders with Turkey and Turkey is the 6th trade partner with the EU in 2020, and therefore we will try to identify whether this pandemic affected trade between them and whether the impact was greater on imports or exports and we will try to identify the most important reasons that led to these results. GDP, export, import and CODID-19 indicators in Turkey and in the EU during Pandemic In this section we will show figures for the most important data for this study, the figures are good way to show the changes over the period and the differences between the countries. In figure 1 we see the population of the European Union countries and Turkey, as we can see that Turkey has the highest population then Germany.
- Figure 1: Turkey and European countries population in 2020 0,0
- The figure 4 shows the monthly trade data between Turkey and the European union since 2013, we can see that the trade balance was negative for Turkey from 2013 to July 2018, then it became positive, but in 2020 it was negative starting from March 2020to April 2021 and it was only positive in June 2020.
- Current prices, euro per capita 2020 - 4 000 000
- In December 2019 the COVID-19 was discovered, and then the corona virus has spread around the world and changed the people lifestyle, affecting almost everything, the first corona virus case in Turkey was on 11th March 2020 and Since that time the virus has spread, and there have been periods when cases of infection rise dramatically, as we can see in the next two figures.
- In figure 7 we see the monthly new cases of COVID-19 in Turkey and the EU countries in 2020, where we can see the first highest point was in April then the cases decreased in May and June, increased again to reach its highest point in November 2020, and increased in December.
- Source:URL-7 In figure 8, we see the monthly new deaths because of COVID-19 in Turkey and the EU countries in 2020, where we can see the first highest point was in April then the deaths decreased, but then increased again to reach a high point in November 2020 and increased more in December.
- Figure 7: Total corona virus new cases monthly 2020 Germany
- In figure 9 we can see that the new cases continued decreasing in January then it increased again to reach the highest point in April 2021, and a strong drop in the number of cases after that in May.
- In figure 10 we can see that the new deaths start decreasing in January with a little increase in April 2021, then A strong drop in the number of deaths after that.
- In the next two figures we put the ratio of deaths to the new cases in Turkey da- ta chart with the trade data chart, in the figure 11 we can see a decline in Turkish imports in April and May 2020 and that could be because of the first shock of COVID-19 as the first corona virus case in Turkey was on 11th of March 2020, after that the imports increased in June and July, then a minor decrease in August, and then an increase until the end of the year, it fell again in January 2021, recovered in February, March, and April, and then fell again in May.
- In Figure 12, the reduction in exports began in February which means that the decrease in the exports happened before the decrease in the imports, and reached its lowest point in April, then increased but another decrease in August, and then a little decrease in May 2021.
- Turkey cases https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases, (Date accessed: 11.12.2021)
- When we talk about the trade, we must show data about the exchange rate, and in the figure 14 we see that the value of the Turkish currency against the euro decreased from the beginning of 2020 until November 2020 then increased a little in December 2020, January and February 2021 then decreased again until June 2021, and we can see that the trend of the exchange rate is almost the same as the exports and imports, which mean that the Turkish currency depreciation increases the imports and the exports.
- The exchange rate was calculated by the researcher using data from (National Currency to US Dollar Exchange Rate: Average of Daily Rates for Turkey, 2021)
- For our study we collected monthly data from January 2020 to June 2021, to analyse the impact of COVID-19 on trade between Turkey and EU countries. The data we collected includes exports and imports for Turkey and EU countries and obtained from TUIK, GDP for Turkey and EU countries obtained from Eurostat which was quarterly data converted to monthly data using EViews, and data about COVID-19 obtained from Our World in Data and we calculated the ratio of deaths to the new cases as we think that the people and decision makers make their decisions based on this rate (URL-15). In June 2021 the ratio of deaths to total new cases was 113%, as the new deaths were higher than the new cases.
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