ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN TRADE BETWEEN TURKEY AND THE BALKAN COUNTRIES WITH GRAVITY MODEL
TÜRKIYE VE BALKAN ÜLKELERI ARASINDAKİ DIŞ TİCARETİN ÇEKİM MODELİ ILE ANALİZİ

Author : Ercan YAŞAR -- İlhan KORKMAZ
Number of pages : 382-407

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze trade relationship between Turkey and 10 Balkan countries between 2006-2016 period by using gravity model approach. We used both export and import values between Turkey and Balkan countries as dependent variables. Our independent variables are Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (current US$) and distance between capital cities of Turkey and other Balkan countries. It can be stated that the gravity model of trade between Turkey and Balkan countries holds for 2006 and 2016 period. That means the trade potential between Turkey and Balkan countries increases if the masses, represented by the GDP, of these countries increases. In addition to base gravity model, the other factors effecting trade between Turkey and the Balkansa are examined by using dummy variables. According to the findings EU membership of Balkan countries, having common language and colonial past are influential factors on trade between Turkey and the Balkans. Study also indicates that there are unused trade potential especially between Bulgaria, Slovenia, Bosnia Herzigovina and Turkey. Utilization of this potential can provide mutual benefits for Turkey and Balkan countries.

Keywords

Balkan Peninsula, Foreign Trade, Trade Potential, Gravity Model, PCSE.

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