AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON DETERMINANTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY
TÜRKİYE’DE İŞSİZLİĞİN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK ANALİZ

Author : Ercan ŞAHBUDAK -- Dilek ŞAHİN
Number of pages : 85-96

Abstract

This study analyzes the determinants of unemployment in Turkey over a period of 1980-2013 by examining the emprical relationship among the unemployment, gross domestic product, inflation rate and population growth rate. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach has been applied to test determinants of unemployment. The long run estimated results reveal that GDP, inflation rate, population growth rate has negative and significant relationship with unemployment rate in Turkey. The short run results show that GDP has negative and insignificant relationship with unemployment rate. Inflation rate has negative and significant relationship with unemployment rate. Population growth rate has positive and significant relationship with unemployment rate. Estimated lagged error correction term (ECM-1) is negative and statistically significant. Eventually approximately 77% deviations from the long-run equilibrium value eliminate in each period.

Keywords

Unemployment, Economic Growth, Inflation Rate, Population Growth Rate, ARDL Bounds Testing.

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